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Smartp - Week of 2/16/10.

CURRENT SMARTP LONGER-TERM BIAS AND INTERMEDIATE TERM MAP
Smartp Long-Term Neural and EWT Bias - xxxxx (last update 01/31/10)
Smartp Intermediate-Term Neural – (4 weeks out Map) - xxxxx (last update 02/14/10)
Smartp Methodology (last update 10/19/09)
Smartp Glossary of Terms (last update 10/24/09)
ALIGNMENT OF VARIOUS DEGREES OF MAPS
- Smartp ITN aligned with Smartp LTN on 1/29-1/30
- Smartp ITN aligns with Smartp IWN this week, on 2/16-17, 2/17-18, 2/19
- The Daily CIT Series without polarity is perfect match as well with the time series 2/16-17, 2/17-18, 2/19
- Preferred action based on ITN and IWN would be High- Low – High
- Alternate (not expected) would be the inversion of this series
INVERSIONS
- Inversion effect is low this week, however, we will have to play Thu/Fri using CIT Cycle as it doesn’t align directly with Price Neural. I tried Inversion by lowering the threshold to 70% (usual threshold probability I use is 90%+), but couldn’t find any. But just from looks, there is a mismatch- not the first time. Main thing is Smartp ITN points to a high at range tops on 2/19. So we will figure it out.
- There are no double inversions

PRICE
- We are going to be between a rock and hard place. Rock is last week’s high’s (1075-1080 ESH0), this is going to be tough to break. And the hard place is 1103.50, the previous ivth which caused the rapid final decline, eventually, we will take it out but not this week. So what does the market do? It bounces between the weekly minima and maxima. Keep a long bias, to catch upside surprises and irrationality that Smartp may not catch. Play the range, all week, so if you find it close to minima, BUY and if you find it close 1100-1103 – SELL. There will be multiple hits on both extremes.
- The holiday Futures rise looks unreasonable to me, but may happen into Tuesday and then give back. Will adjust Price Neural based on the highs achieved between Mon/Tue

- Best Setups annotated on Charts

- NOTE: Price Neural’s job is to provide weekly price bounds (maxima and minima)

TIME
- The overall bias is up
- Upcoming low CIT’s are 2-17/18, and 2/20-23 (cluster CIT) – refer to Smartp ITN
- NOTE: CIT Cycle used for actual timing and should be used without any trend assumptions but rather as Pivot Points without polarity

PATTERN
- Overlaying ITN & IWN may produce this picture when the week is out

Smartp Pattern 021410.png
ALTERNATE SCENARIO
- Will be tracking Alternate, and publish if I see something else going but not expecting it this week.
- Both 1065.96 and 1057 blown away and the most important 1041 (11/2 wave gap and trap) held the cascade down from 1/21/10. Holding 1035, and eventually 1021 is paramount, otherwise serious rethinking is required (not expected)

Good luck and safe trading!

Support Levels
* 1075-1080 ESH0
* 1060 ESH0
* 1041 ESH0
* 1035 ESH0
* 1021 ESH0 – 11/2/09 lows
* 991 ESZ9 (strong)
* 972 ESZ9
* 957 ESZ9 (very strong)
* 941 ESZ9
* 929 ESZ9 (gap)
* 906 ESZ9 (Bear Roast Point)
* 865-70 ES – important for Smartp LTN bullish case

Resistance Levels
* 1103.4 ESH0
* 1124.3
* 1147.39 – 1/13/10 high
* 1165

Actual Action overlaid on Forecast from 2/14/10.