LAST WEEK’S REVIEW
– CIT wise the momentum was up and it proved accurate
– Price projection wise the expectation was to reach 1054.5 and the actual was 1048.18

PREFERRED SCENARIO
– Generally speaking a tepid week with an upward bias. Remember once again those bearish on markets were fried for the ESU9 contract – so the ESU9 is pretty much SU. Funnily, enough we have been correcting since August 7th 2009 in an irregular top structure, albeit by logging newer highs. For those unfamiliar with EWT, this is possible. The books say that irregular tops signify underlying BULLISH momentum. It also, signifies that when C down occurs it will be a surprise and straight line affair. This is understandable as the structure is already setup for that. A down completed 9/2-4/09, and B up completing on 9/18/09. In my original Smartp Map into 10/3/09,  I had posted 9/17/09 as 144TD’s from 3/6/09 lows and hence a nice alignment for a CIT.

– Monday should be a negative close. I am improving my intra-week algorithm and will be testing this in parallel with the existing Smartp intra-week model. The new one is suggesting 1038 on Monday, and the old one is expecting a deeper retrace towards 1028.
– Rest of the week should again be SU into the key CIT’s above for OE and ESU9 expiration, logging a newer high again – so I wouldn’t want to be short prior to 9/17-18 above 1050. New algorithm suggests 1051, and the older one suggests 1060.79. 1082 by 9/17-18 from last week is dead for now.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO
– Breaking 1020.5 (pivotal both on down and up side in last few weeks), to the downside will confirm the irregular top is complete and we are headed towards 957-968 zone in a hurry by 9/28/09. That would be a 9% correction and I wouldn’t expect anything more this year.
– With October approaching, crash calling is once again on the rise, to the contrary I expect upward continuation once the aforesaid 957-968 zone has been tested.

Good luck!