NEM has been analyzed as a proxy for this Sector.
Our April 2013 post, $GOLD through the Eyes of Miners ($NEM), while predicting a bottom for GOLD on April 15th, 2013 said that NEM should hit its closing high in August 2013, a retest (or possibly a higher in October 2013), and then the secular down cycle should resume from there.
So far we have
– We had a May 2013 closing high of 34.38 post the April 2013 bottom. Remember Cycles under study relate to monthly closes and hence the May close was above April 2013 close
– Post that, the expectation was that we see a higher close in August 2013 – but nonetheless the highest close since May 2013 has been in August 2013 at 31.77
– And now a final hit to topside, which I have reasons to believe per Cycles would take a peek above August 2013 closing high at >=32.61 and then the longer term decline into August 2014 should resume from there.
Based on EW, we have calculated a target of 14.00-15.17 for NEM by August 2014. Print of 35 on a DAILY CLOSE would mean something else is going on.
Good luck!
If your expectation is for NEM to hit one more high in oct before it resumes its bearish trend into august 2014, then does that imply we would see one more higher high for gold into oct before it also resumes it’s downtrend into 2014. There is still a debate raging on if gold hit an important bottom in late June@1179 or is it just a short term bottom on it’s way to much lower levels. Please clarify.
Hey Chuck:
Please refer to the NEM chart above – the October high is projected at 32.61 on DAILY CLOSING basis (it may have a higher high intraday). So it is not a higher high but a secondary high to August 2013 Highs.
With TIME trading I just let TIME exhaust and define the PRICE, it may end up being a retest of 1426 or higher high. I believe 1179 was a temporary bottom in on-going GOLD bear.
According to your studies when and at what price point do you expect the bottom for gold? If it is an ongoing bear does it mean the secular bull in gold is over or is it just a cyclical bear within an ongoing bull.
Chuck:
My apologies but the long term has been reserved for my subs. I hope you appreciate that.
Thanks.