Category: Clif Droke

27

Sep2009

The Great China Conundrum.

1
Probably the biggest “X-factor” in the ongoing effort at reviving the global economy is China.  China is seen by many as the world’s emerging industrial powerhouse and its relationship with the United States is considered to be crucial for its own development, as well as for ... Read More
September 27, 2009chanakya

09

Sep2009

Gold, stocks and the 10-year cycle peak.

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Talk is now circulating in financial quarters of a new “mini-bubble” in the making. Apparently the unbounded rise in the stock market is reviving fears of another collapse like the one suffered last year. Another reason that the “hated rally” has sparked fears is that we’re about a year removed from ... Read More
September 9, 2009chanakya

22

Aug2009

The power of the 10-year cycle.

0
Here we are again approaching another 10-year cycle peak.  The last such peak was in 1999 while the most recent 10-year cycle bottom was in 2004.  We wrote extensively on both episodes at the time and the 10-year cycle is one of our favorites.  It’s what ... Read More
August 22, 2009chanakya

02

Aug2009

The Great Missed Opportunity of 2009.

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When the books have been written on 2009, the prevailing story will undoubtedly be one of lost opportunity.  Countless numbers of investors caught up in the tangled web of pessimistic headlines failed to pull the trigger on what is turning out to be one of the best ... Read More
August 2, 2009chanakya

27

Jul2009

The dangers of drinking from the horse trough.

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One of the most talked about themes of the past few weeks was the supposedly bearish “head and shoulders” pattern in the daily chart of the S&P 500 Index.  The financial press drew investors’ attention to this pattern in the most alarmist tones they could muster.  ... Read More
July 27, 2009chanakya

19

Jul2009

It doesn’t pay to fall asleep in a recovery.

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The vast majority of retail investors have “fallen asleep” on the broad market recovery since March.  The sleepy character of market psychology has become even more pronounced in just the last few weeks as the market spent some time consolidating its gains.  In that period of ... Read More
July 19, 2009chanakya

09

Jul2009

Inflation, sentiment and the Kress Cycles.

0
Despite a 40% market recovery and an abatement of the credit crisis, a climate of high fear abounds among market participants.  Investor sentiment polls continue to show an excess of bears over bulls as few believe that a recovery can be sustained. If anything, fear has been ... Read More
July 9, 2009chanakya